Robert Scoble gets his usual earful about why Tablet PCs aren't selling. Again. So I decided to revisit the discussion about why they really aren't selling. And despite the usual marketing sales volume numbers that are always being thrown around ("we'll hit a million any day now"), I really don't think tablets are selling all that well to the general population. Scoble has a great example:
"Four friends have not taken my advice to buy a Tablet PC. Lenn Pryor. Jeff Sandquist. Dave Winer. Buzz Bruggeman."
Ouch! Heavy hitters too. But frankly, it doesn't surprise me. But it does illustrate a trend that I see pretty clearly in the student population at the college where I work. Tablets are just hard to "sell" to many people. And it's not always a question of money either (certainly not in the case of Scoble's friends).
Over the last year, we've had a pretty visible increase of students with laptops (and computers in general). Tablets so far - zero. However, there are some interesting patterns among the laptop users. They can be easily divided into two major groups.
First, we have the budget buyers. These are the financially strapped folks, who buy horrid, horrid things like Dell Inspiron 1000/1100 series laptops (those things really need to be thrown out of a window), second-hand units, or still use years-old models that still run Windows 98. But all of them can get on our wireless network (some just barely), browse their auction or forum sites, run AIM and chat with friends, and type up a few Word documents. That keeps them perfectly happy, and they don't see any need for something more.
Tablets have absolutely no chance with this group, because they don't offer anything those buyers really want. However, tablets are more expensive, which is not what they want. As cheap as a tablet can get, there will always be a non-tablet laptop out there that costs less. You say "Averatec for $1,200" and they come back with "Dell for $700". Hard to argue with that. And you can't sell them on features that aren't needed, since these are people who go online, configure a new laptop, and cut every possible option, including warranties, just to lower the price. Forget tablets.
The second big group are the feature shoppers. These are folks who know more about the marketplace, what things cost, what they personally want, and how much they should be paying for it. They are frequently also going for low prices, but they are mostly interested in having certain features, as long as the prices aren't totally high end.
So these are users who want their portable to have certain features that correspond to what they do a lot of the time. A large screen, with a high resolution. Fast graphics to play games. Good speakers and booming sound. Desktop-level processors at a low price. CD or DVD burners. Wide-screen displays for movie watching. Battery life is frequently not very important, since many of these machines aren't very mobile anyway. The feature shoppers want a good set of attributes for a decent price.
Recommending a tablet to them is tricky also. Only XGA resolution? Only a 12" screen? No dedicated video memory? Only one speaker? All that for more money than I think it's worth? Again, it's hard to argue. Why should somebody get a measly low-res 12" screen on a tablet, when they could get a 15" wide-screen, high-resolution display on a laptop that costs 3/4 of the price? Despite the extra features that a tablet may offer, these folks aren't getting the features that they really want, so why push them toward something that isn't a good match?
Those are two major groups, but there is another. The indecisive, scaredy-cat fence sitters. These are people (and their parents) who realize that cheapest isn't always the best, are willing to pay a little bit (but not too much) more, but they just don't know enough about the subject matter to really decide independently.
These are the buyers who are easily influenced, and thus make a perfect target audience for tablet advertising. (Yes, precisely, what advertising?) These folks watch TV, look at ads, listen to others, and look to see what their friends and acquaintances are buying. And what do they see most commonly? Names like Dell, IBM, HP, Apple. They see conventional looking laptops. They hear things like "RAM", "screen size", "processor speed", and so forth. They see their neighbors and classmates with conventional laptops. No crazy slates here.
They also expect some level of service and support, and since they're scaredy cats, they want to feel comfortable and secure knowing a big company will take care of them. Dell's cheapo laptops may be crappy, but the company can take care of you (even if it has to ship out three replacements). Mention something like "Averatec" or "Motion", and you'll see the uncertainty grab hold of them. And then they'll just go and get a Dell anyway.
Part of the problem is a lack of model availability too. While one could argue that there is a good number of various types of tablets "on the market", it's not quite the case, at least as far as a typical buyer is concerned. I hate to say it, and it will sound mean, but some of the companies out there just don't matter in the grand scheme of things. For example, the new Fujitsu T4000 looks great on paper, but how many common people will ever see it, hear about it, or have access to buy it? Same thing with the sexy new NEC slate, which will be a limited production, high-price, CEO-toy type of device. Even Motion - a big player in the tablet scene - is virtually unknown outside of vertical industries, and has no retail presence. Electrovaya is even more under the radar. And I can't say Acer is really a "pop" brand these days either. "Dude, I'm getting an Acer"..? I don't think so.
Ultimately, it's not only the prices and the dreadful lack of marketing (although those don't help) - it's the lack of choice that is plaguing Tablet PC sales. Right now, there are, what, maybe 50 models of the commonly available tablets. Maybe 20 that are keeping pace with the general technology development. Maybe 10 of those are decent. But there are many dozens of decent, contemporary laptops out there. Once you can choose from a wide array of different price levels, different feature sets, and many different (and well known) manufacturers, then we can start seeing higher adoption rates.
Oh, and they have to be convertible or hybrid models. Everybody in their right mind will realize that they will eventually need a keyboard, no matter how good the pen interface. Look at smartphones and PDAs - integrated keyboards are what people are demanding, and what manufacturers are starting to churn out more and more. Nobody want to carry around several pieces and have to connect them just to execute a quick keyboard shortcut combo.