Pictures, videos, user praise - you can find a lot of all of those when you start looking for information on Lonestar, or the more official Windows XP Tablet PC Edition 2005. It looks pretty impressive, and makes it look like a Tablet PC is pretty usable with just a pen, which it is.
But is that actually a bad thing? One of the criticisms in the current storm of "the tablet is dead" publicity is that the product will miss the back to school buying season - again - because SP2 is now pushed back until probably July or later. Some people argue that such a situation is not the case - buyers shouldn't be waiting, since they can buy a Tablet PC today and later download the free upgrade. That is true.
However, who in the right mind would really want to buy a tablet now, if they ever - even once - set eyes on Lonestar? I mean, Tablet PC version 1.0 was...shall we say, decent for a first release. More like an alpha version. Lonestar is really what version 1.0 should have been. It's so much different and better, that any Lonestar user would instantly despise the original, if it were suddenly forced on them again. And it demoes pretty well too - those, who have seen it, want it.
One could argue that sales should be helped by sheer obscurity: your average retail store buyer won't see Lonestar demonstrated anywhere, so they have to base their purchase decision on version 1.0. But then again, that's not too impressive to begin with, so maybe that's not a winning point. And also, the types of people who are now adopting tablets are probably at least somewhat tech savvy and might put in some time to learn about the product beforehand. That's when they come across Lonestar, see it's better, and decide to hold off buying a tablet.
Worse yet, since SP2 offers a host of other improvements, it is probably holding off purchases of Windows XP based computers on its own. So not only will Lonestar get lost in the rest of the SP2 updates, it will also be bundled into many other improvements as part of a "wait and see" purchase climate.
To top it off, Intel didn't help by launching new Dothan chips at this point either. Buyers will either again wait for the latest and greatest, or wait for existing models to become cheaper. After all, they already are waiting for SP2, so another reason will just reaffirm that decision.
So is the "buy now and upgrade later" line of reasoning an oversimplification of the market? Would you buy a tablet now, if you knew about Lonestar, but weren't comfortable with installing a somewhat buggy beta version of a service pack?